Here’s your estimated 3-day box office returns (new releases bolded):
1. Minions – $115.2 million ($115.2 million total)
2. Jurassic World – $18.1 million ($590.6 million total)
3. Inside Out – $17.1 million ($283.6 million total)
4. Terminator Genisys – $13.7 million ($68.7 million total)
5. The Gallows – $10.0 million ($10.0 million total)
6. Magic Mike XXL – $9.6 million ($48.3 million total)
7. Ted 2 – $5.6 million ($71.6 million total)
8. Self/Less – $5.3 million ($5.3 million total)
9. Baahubali: The Beginning – $3.5 million ($3.5 million total)
10. Max – $3.4 million ($33.7 million total)
The Big Stories
Pixar who? That is apparently what kids were saying this weekend as they flocked to their little jibberish-speaking, banana-lovin’ Illumination creations. Inside Out maintains the top opening weekend for an original animated creation, but now falls back to fifth all-time on that genre chart as Minions becomes the second highest ever. Behind Shrek the Third and ahead of Toy Story 3. In the weeks ahead we will see just how much the kids love those little creatures.
BANANAS!
Despicable Me was a bit of a surprise success in the summer of 2010. Opening to $56.3 million and managed a 4.45 multiple to reach $251.5 million. (The only film to have a higher multiple that summer was Inception at 4.65.) In 2013 the sequel opened to $83.5 million, had a 4.40 multiple and went on to become the highest-grossing film in Universal’s history with $368 million. More than E.T. More than Jurassic Park. The Jurassic franchise got their revenge this summer though. So where does this leave Minions?
If Universal wants to be optimistic (and why shouldn’t they this year?) and apply the same word-of-mouth formula, Minions would be looking at around $506 million. But let’s pull it back a bit. There have been 24 films to open Friday-Sunday with $110 million or higher. Only five of those films even managed a 3x multiplier:
Toy Story 3 (3.76), Spider-Man (3.51), The Dark Knight (3.36), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (3.12), Marvel’s The Avengers (3.005)
Continuing to play the optimist card that would put Minions somewhere between $345-432 million. That might count on no further distractions for the kiddies though. Ant-Man ventures into theaters next week and Pixels the week after that. Both are likely PG-13 affairs so it might snag some of the kids in double-digits but not enough to make a huge dent. After that the only animated films remaining this summer are Shaun the Sheep and Underdogs, released by Lionsgate and The Weinstein Co., respectively and may not make $60 million between them. It’s way too early to call precisely where Minions will end up on the all-time list, but with over $200 million overseas already Universal has yet another hit on their hands and could cement them in box office history as being the only studio to post three $300 million grossers in a single year. And likely the first to also release three billion dollar grossers along with Furious 7 and Jurassic World. Prior to 2015, Universal only had one to reach that tally with Jurassic Park (and that includes re-releases.) With four total, Universal would much Warner Bros. all-time while both trail Disney’s impressive eight billion-dollar films.
Charlie Grimille Hangs Ryan Reynolds
Fox evidently got the memo that you don’t open Ryan Reynolds films during the summer. (Don’t mention The Proposal – that was a Sandra Bullock film.) That must be why they are releasing Deadpool in February 2016. Here’s hoping that one is good because Self/Less, despite a surprising B+ rating at Cinemascore, most certainly is not. Reynolds as Green Lantern opened well but had the third worst multiplier in the summer of 2011 (behind Priest and Glee the 3-D Concert Movie.) That same summer, The Change-Up only grossed $37 million and in 2013, R.I.P.D. ended up one of the biggest bombs of the year. Self/Less opened less than Van Wilder, Waiting and even Adventureland (where Reynolds had a solid supporting role, but still.) For Focus (or Gramercy) it is the worst opening for a film opened on over 2000 screens. Even when Brokeback Mountain finally made it to 2000 screens it grossed $6 million.
Meanwhile only five films this year have received less than a “C+” rating from the public at Cinemascore. Unfriended and The Woman in Black 2 got a “C” while Blackhat, Hot Tub Time Machine 2 and The Lazarus Effect got a “C-“. Now make it six with The Gallows also receiving a “C” as well as a 13% rating at Rotten Tomatoes. Which means it’s time to re-visit the worst-reviewed wide releases of 2015:
10. The Gallows (13%)
9. The Lazarus Effect (13%)
8. Mortdecai (12%)
7. Seventh Son (12%)
6. The Loft (11%)
5. Unfinished Business (11%)
4. The Boy Next Door (10%)
3. Taken 3 (9%)
2. Hot Pursuit (8%)
1. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 (6%)
The Gallows‘ $10 million is on the low-end of the Blumhouse opening weekend scale. Considering the production budget was reportedly a miniscule $100,000 (still a ripoff) the film could have done Self/Less numbers and still be a hit.
Tales of the Top Ten
On Day 31 of its release, Jurassic World is at $590 million. That is still $36 million ahead of where Marvel’s The Avengers was at this point. Jurassic is now starting to fall behind the weekend pace with its $18 million not quite The Avengers‘ $20.4 million in its 5th weekend, but there should be no doubt it will eventually reach its $623.3 million to become the third highest grossing film in U.S. history. and only needs another $85 million to be the third highest worldwide, too. At $283 million, Inside Out is less than a week away from also becoming the third highest U.S. gross in Pixar’s history. It is also still well ahead of Finding Nemo‘s pace and needs just $56 million to be second all-time and #1 for their original efforts. A well-deserved reward for their best film since WALL-E.
As for the unoriginal efforts of the previous weeks, Terminator Genisys is $24 million behind the pace of Terminator Salvation which finished with $125.3 million. That divide has been growing and at this pace it may not reach $100 million. Magic Mike XXL had a very respectable 25% drop in its second weekend compared to the original’s 60%. The sequel made roughly this weekend what the original did on its third. If it maintains that pace it will finish up somewhere around $70 million. Ted 2 is now $4 million behind the pace of Spy which just passed $100 million on Thursday. Spy had more than double what Ted 2 did in its third weekend. Seth MacFarlane’s film is more on pace with this year’s Get Hard and is probably looking at a final tally of around $90 million. Unless the international numbers perk up (it’s grossed $36 million to date), this could be not just be the rare disappointment for Universal this year, but a legitimate bomb. One they will forget about in the context of one of the greatest studio years ever.
In limited release, A24’s documentary, Amy, opened to $1.78 million on just 341 screens. Even more impressive was Blue Sky’s release of Indian epic, Baahubali: The Beginning which cracked the top ten with $3.57 million on a mere 236 screens. That is the best opening this year for any film to start on less than 1300 screens.
Erik Childress can be heard each week on the WGN Radio Podcast evaluating box office with Nick Digilio.
[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]
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