Here’s your estimated 3-day box office returns (new releases bolded):
1. Spy – $30.0 million ($30.0 million total)
2. San Andreas – $26.4 million ($99.0 million total)
3. Insidious Chapter 3 – $23.0 million ($23.0 million total)
4. Entourage – $10.4 million ($17.8 million total)
5. Mad Max: Fury Road – $7.9 million ($130.8 million total)
6. Pitch Perfect 2 – $7.7 million ($161.0 million total)
7. Tomorrowland – $7.0 million ($76.2 million total)
8. The Avengers: Age of Ultron – $6.2 million ($438.0 million total)
9. Aloha – $3.3 million ($16.3 million total)
10. Poltergeist – $2.8 million ($44.4 million total)
The Big Stories
Box office fell slightly below expectations for all the major releases this weekend, but that does not exactly translate into disappointing returns for any of them. People are still down with Melissa McCarthy, especially when she’s in a funny movie…directed by Paul Feig. Horror fans seem to still dig the Insidious series, too. And for some reason people went out to see Entourage. Yes, there was certainly something this weekend for everyone.
McCarthy + Feig = $$$
Paul Feig’s Bridesmaids grossed $169.1 million in 2011 and The Heat took home $159.5 million in 2013. Can Spy come close to those numbers? Fox would certainly like to think so. People should be reminded that while Melissa McCarthy has seemingly dominated nearly everything she has been associated with since her Oscar-nominated breakthrough, this is only the second time she’s received top billing.
The $134.5 million of Identity Thief had her paired with Jason Bateman in the dead period of February and The Heat had her teamed with Sandra Bullock. Her previous top billing was last summer’s horrifically reviewed Tammy ($84.5 million), that she co-wrote that with hubby Ben Falcone, who directed. Spy‘s numbers are already much better than that.
If its score holds, Spy will be just the 16th wide release by one of the majors since 2010 to score a 95% or higher on Rotten Tomatoes, and just the 9th film that’s not in the family category — a stat that pairs it with this year’s Mad Max: Fury Road, 2010’s The Social Network & True Grit, 2011’s Moneyball, 2012’s Argo, 2013’s Gravity, and 2014’s Selma & Nightcrawler. Those are the kind of numbers scored by Best Picture nominees.
Cinemascore voters gave Spy a “B+”, the same score given to hit Bridesmaids, which posted a 6.44 multiple from opening weekend. That’s the second best increase for a summer release since 2011, beaten only by The Help which opened three months later. Even with three weeks to itself until Ted 2 comes out, that seems like a rather lofty proposition.
Looking at other comedies with the same Cinemascore in the vicinity of Spy‘s numbers we can find Horrible Bosses, The Other Woman and Sex and the City 2. That small sample size registered an average multiple of 3.53, which would put Spy in the range of an $105 million gross. On the other hand, if it can come close to the average of a Tomatometer score of 95%+ (5.15) it would be looking at $154 million, right up there The Heat and Bridesmaids. That would certainly make for a very unique partnership between Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig.
The Horror Prequel and the TV Show Adaptation
$13.2 million translated to $54 million which then translated to $40.2 million and $83.5 million. That was the leap between the openings and final grosses of the first two Insidious chapters. James Wan has moved on to directing what is soon to be the third highest grossing film (Furious 7) in history (Avengers: Age of Ultron has also just moved to fifth all-time ahead of the final Harry Potter.) But Leigh Whannell, the friend that started the journey with Wan in writing Saw, has taken over directorial duties and the reviews have not been half-bad, hovering around 59-60%. Better than Chapter 2 (38%) and slightly less than the original (66%).
However, while the first film was the rare horror film that grew from word-of-mouth and gathered a most impressive 4.06 multiple for the genre, the sequel only registered a 2.0755 even with a “B+”. That’s a number the Poltergeist remake is still trying to hit (as it struggles to reach $50 million) and it got off to a very similar start ($22.6 million) as Insidious: Chapter 3’s ($23.0 million, which could be $22.6 once the Monday numbers are confirmed.) All signs may point to this being the lowest-grossing Insidious film, but with a Blumhouse-sponsored budget of just $10 million don’t count on it being the final chapter just yet.
Doug Ellin may not have given his characters real closure on the final season of Entourage — two impending marriages manage to fail in the eight days and eight months later where the movie version kicks off. Before the film even made its $5.3 million on “opening day” ($2 million of that was made Tuesday night), Variety was reporting a $20 million Friday-to-Sunday for the big-screen adaptation. Not only is the film going to come up short of that for its 5-day gross, it’s barely going to make half of those projections just on the weekend. $10.4 million from Friday-to-Sunday. $17 million since late Tuesday night.
Tales of the Top Ten
San Andreas is just a day away from hitting the $100 million mark; the 11th film of 2015 to do so. Sony can certainly use a success story, as can this summer from the studio’s point of view.
It sure as heck ain’t going to be Cameron Crowe’s Aloha, dropping 66% this weekend. Only two films this summer are currently in the black – Avengers: Age of Ultron and Pitch Perfect 2 – and San Andreas looks like the next best chance of the big-budget titles to break out of the red, but it still needs over $150 million to do so.
While Insidious: Chapter 3 may indeed be the next film to post a profit, Mad Max: Fury Road is still hopeful there is enough in the tank worldwide to earn the money it deserves. It has just passed $300 million worldwide and it’s still leaps and bounds the most successful word-of-mouth release of the summer with a 2.88 multiple to date compared to the next best (2.34), but it’s still looking at another $124 million to recoup.
That 2.34 multiple, by the way, belongs to Disney’s Tomorrowland. The good news for Disney is that it’s not going to be quite the disaster as Mars Needs Moms, The Lone Ranger or John Carter. But it’s still going to need about $86 million worldwide to avoid being one of the ten biggest bombs since 2011; a list that already claims this year’s Jupiter Ascending.
To end with some good news, the Brian Wilson film,Love & Mercy just missed the top ten with $2.2 million on just 483 screens. That’s the best launch on under 500 screens this year, ahead of Woman In Gold. It also sits at 88% at Rotten Tomatoes, which means it’s also the second-best reviewed film of the week behind Spy.
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