Here’s your estimated 3-day box office returns (new releases bolded):
1. Jurassic World – $54.2 million ($500.0 million total)
2. Inside Out – $52.1 million ($184.9 million total)
3. Ted 2 – $32.9 million ($32.9 million total)
4. Max – $12.2 million ($12.2 million total)
5. Spy – $7.8 million ($88.3 million total)
6. San Andreas – $5.2 million ($141.8 million total)
7. Dope – $2.8 million ($11.7 million total)
8. Insidious Chapter 3 – $2.0 million ($49.7 million total)
7. Pitch Perfect 2 – $3.3 million ($177.5 million total)
8. Mad Max: Fury Road – $2.8 million ($143.0 million total)
9. The Avengers: Age of Ultron – $1.6 million ($452.4 million total)
10. Pitch Perfect 2 – $1.3 million ($180.9 million total)
The Big Stories
The scapegoat of this summer’s box office, should it come necessary to point fingers, will surely be the companies and computers responsible for pre-tracking. They already completely underestimated the potential of Jurassic World, which has already cemented its place in history as one of the most successive films ever in less than three weeks. (It’s total now stands at $1.238 billion worldwide.) Now they just allowed an overestimation to the same studio on another of their sequels. Could you blame Universal for wanting to ignore them the rest of the year? Let’s see if we can give them some numbers that will make them feel a little better.
Less Than Your Average Bear
Seth MacFarlane’s feature debut, Ted, was considered a surprise hit by many in 2012. Modestly budgeted at $50 million, the film ended up becoming Universal’s biggest success in years and was touted as the most successful original live-action comedy of all-time with over $549 million worldwide. (Depending, of course, how you classify Men In Black‘s $589 million.) Starting with $54.4 million its opening weekend (and grossing over $200 million in the U.S.) Ted was the 8th highest start for an “R”-rated film until 22 Jump Street, American Sniper and Fifty Shades of Grey pushed it out of the Top 10. Ted 2’s $32.9 million opening ranks 65th on that list now (if the numbers hold.)
That is certainly discouraging for a sequel that was tracking for over $45 million and carries a production budget of $85 million this time around. All is not a total loss for Ted 2, as there have been a number of “R”-rated comedies that have opened to less than $33 million and still found their way to at least $100 million – barely, but they made it – including Due Date ($100.5), Bad Grandpa ($102.0), Bad Teacher ($100.2) and Step Brothers ($100.4). Those final two were summer releases as was American Wedding which made it to $104.5 million after a $33.9 start. Ted 2’s numbers do represent a steep drop over the original so let’s look at the ten best openings for “R”-rated comedy sequels:
The Hangover Part II ($85.9), 22 Jump Street ($57.0), Jackass 3-D ($50.3), American Pie 2 ($45.1), The Hangover Part III ($41.6), American Wedding ($33.9), Ted 2 ($32.9), Sex and the City 2 ($31.0), Jackass: Number Two ($29.0), Beverly Hills Cop II ($26.3)
With the exception of Sex and the City, all the first sequels on that list measured an improvement over their originals at the box office. But only 22 Jump Street saw an uptick in the audience Cinemascore. It was the only film not to register at least an “A-” from the survey company (the original Beverly Hills Cop’s score was not immediately available) while The Hangover Part II was the only one to not go down a full letter grade. Sex and the City 2 and Jackass: Number Two were the only films not to see their international hauls go up too. As the first Ted did over $330 million internationally alone, it should only need about half that reach the roughly $270 million it needs to break even. So no need to worry, Seth or Universal.
The Battle For #1
As Ted 2 failed to bring in the audiences that were “tracked,” the two bigger stories of the summer went neck-and-neck this weekend. Jurassic World continues to impress with its numbers, hitting $500 million in a record 17 days, six less than it took Marvel’s The Avengers. Though it did fall slightly behind that film’s pace by only becoming the third-highest 3rd weekend of all-time with $54.7 million compared to The Avengers‘ $55.6. Jurassic World still has over $43 million more than that film on day 17, though. The Avengers had its fourth weekend helped by the Memorial Day holiday. Jurassic, unfortunately, sees July 4th fall on a Saturday this year but all eyes will still be on it to see if it still manages to top Terminator Genisys in its debut. (The Avengers had $36.6 million in its 4th weekend and $47.2 million over the holiday.)
Jumping into the #3 spot of the summer is Pixar’s Inside Out which dropped less than 41% in its second frame, less than Cars 2, Toy Story 2, Brave, WALL-E, A Bug’s Life, Monsters University and Cars. Toy Story 3‘s drop was also steeper, but 46.2% is still pretty darn good for a film that started with over $110 million. As is Inside Out‘s 42.5% estimated drop after a $90+ million start. Word of mouth is clearly catching on to the almost universally-acclaimed tearjerker and all signs point to the film surpassing Pete Docter’s Up for third on the all-time Pixar list and may even be taking a run at Finding Nemo for second. Here is what Pixar’s films looked like after 10 days in release:
Toy Story 3 ($226.8 million), Inside Out ($184.9) Monsters University ($170.4), Finding Nemo ($144.0), The Incredibles ($143.2), Up ($137.2), Brave ($131.7), WALL-E ($127.1), Monsters, Inc. ($122.1), Cars 2 ($117.2), Cars ($117.0), Toy Story 2 ($116.7), Ratatouille ($109.5), A Bug’s Life ($68.6), Toy Story ($64.6)
Tales of the Top Ten & Beyond (with Warner Bros.’ Max and Batkid)
Hoping to capitalize on the country’s love of dogs and Murica, WB’s Max debuted with a decent if not extraordinary $12.2 million. Better than last year’s Earth to Echo but less than both Dolphin Tale films ($19.1 & $15.8, respectively.) Even MGM’s Good Boy! (remember that one?) started with $13.1 million back in 2003. Someone somewhere at Warner Bros, is likely wondering how they could have gotten the dog to talk and, ahem, maximize their profits. Sincere apologies for that one.
WB’s other Max, the Mad one and his Fury Road is approaching $150 million in the U.S., but still needs roughly another $70 million overseas to be a success. Their San Andreas, on the other hand, is the fourth best success of the summer so far (the studio’s first since American Sniper). That’s good news considering that Hot Pursuit and Entourage are currently the biggest losers of the season after Aloha and Tomorrowland.
One film that should never be considered a loser though is Batkid Begins. The documentary, which WB picked up at Slamdance this year, was directed by Dana Nachman and edited by Dear Zachary filmmaker, Kurt Kuenne, and is about five year-old Miles Scott who was diagnosed with leukemia and had his wish come true when San Francisco was turned into Gotham City for a day. This true feel-good story is only in four theaters currently (NY, LA & San Fran) and will be seeing a slight expansion over the next few weeks, but can use the support to make it into more cities. It grossed $23,000 on those four screens this weekend. Hopefully everyone who saw it is tweeting about it so it can make it into other American cities that could use a lesson in hope and kindness.
Erik Childress can be heard each week on the WGN Radio Podcast evaluating box office with Nick Digilio.
[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]
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Source:: http://www.movies.com/movie-news/ted-2-box-office/18734?wssac=164&wssaffid=news
