December 29, 2018

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Business December 29, 2018

Market Volatility Forecast

NPR’s Don Gonyea speaks with Financial Times global business columnist Rana Foroohar about the recent market volatility, and what it could mean for the economy in 2019.



DON GONYEA, HOST:

The markets have been on a rollercoaster ride this last week. We had one of the largest gains of the year only to have it drop again. This whiplash is leading to a lot of uncertainty. Here today to help us make sense of it all is Financial Times columnist Rana Foroohar.

Welcome. Thanks for joining us.

RANA FOROOHAR: Thanks for having me.

GONYEA: So why are we seeing this volatility right now?

FOROOHAR: Well, there’s a few reasons, and some of them are long-term reasons that we knew were already in the mix. And that’s the fact that, look – it’s been 10 years of a recovery cycle. It may not feel like that to some people, but we’ve actually been in an economic recovery for a long time now. So we were due for a bout of volatility and possibly even a market correction. So that’s one of the factors that are in the mix right now.

There are other things that are more specific to this administration and the politics of the moment. President Trump’s trade war with China over the last few months has created some market jitters. And, in recent days, his questioning of Jerome Powell’s authority at the Fed, and also treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin coming out and saying, well, the banks have enough money if there’s a downturn – well, it makes people wonder, are we going to have a downturn? That increases jitters as well.

There’s also a certain amount of volatility that’s natural during a holiday period when a lot of people are not trading. There’s money on the sidelines. That increases volatility as well.

GONYEA: Well, you mentioned the White House and some of the signals coming out of there. How much impact is this president having on the markets with his tweets?

FOROOHAR: Well, quite a bit, unfortunately. As I say, we’re already at a point where we were probably due for some troubles anyway. China’s slowing. Europe is looking to be more volatile. So there were already trouble. But he is pouring kerosene on that fire with his tweets. This is a time when we are probably going to be slowing down economically, possibly having market volatility, possibly having a correction. What we need is a president that is reassuring, making stable policy decisions and supporting the market and supporting the people that are in charge of the market, like the Fed. And that’s not happening.

GONYEA: You mentioned that we’re in a transition and that the financial narrative is changing. What is it…

FOROOHAR: Yeah.

GONYEA: …Changing to?

FOROOHAR: Well, the last 10 years, even though we’ve been recovering from the financial crisis of 2008, there’s been a single narrative. And that has been that interest rates are low. Money is pretty easy. The Fed is bolstering the markets. Well, recent data – low unemployment rates, pretty good growth over the last few quarters – has forced the Fed into a different position. There’s been a rate hike. There may or may not be more rate hikes in the future, but it’s clear that we’re moving out of this decade of easy money, and we are moving into a period that, frankly, is more like a historic normal where you are going to have ups and downs.

You are going to have turmoil in the markets. There are also industry-specific issues like the FAANGs – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google. All the tech stocks are under threat from regulation. And those are the stocks that have lifted the markets in recent years, and they’re now leading the downturn.

GONYEA: And this volatility, this changing narrative – what does that mean for the average investor?

FOROOHAR: Well, it depends on what your horizon is in terms of your money. If you’re saving for your retirement, and you’re not going to need that money for a number of years, the key really is to sit tight. You do not want to sell or make any sudden portfolio moves in a period of volatility. Now, if you need your money, if you need cash in the short-term future in the next month and maybe the next year, then it’s possible that you do want to wait for one of the up cycles, which is bound to come. We’re going to see lots of ups and downs in the next few months, so you might want to move your investments into more conservative places or even to cash.

GONYEA: What advice do you give people who are thinking of investing or who are just worried about their 401(k)?

FOROOHAR: Well, again, I would say that if you have a medium- to long-term horizon, don’t make any sudden move. U.S. stocks are still a pretty good place to be. Oftentimes, when there’s a global slowdown, you start to see a lot of people going into U.S. assets because they’re considered a safe haven. Now, this administration and the politics of the moment has definitely created some jitters. But the time to sell, the time to shift your retirement assets, is not in the middle of a change cycle economically like we’re going through. Sit tight, don’t make any sudden moves and be prepared to strap in for some more volatility.

GONYEA: Rana Foroohar is with the Financial Times.

Thank you.

FOROOHAR: Thank you.

Copyright © 2018 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by Verb8tm, Inc., an NPR contractor, and produced using a proprietary transcription process developed with NPR. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

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Sports December 29, 2018

Barbershop: The Year In Sports

In the Barbershop, NPR’s Don Gonyea speaks with Washington Post‘s Kevin Blackistone, The Nation‘s Dave Zirin, and USA Today‘s Christine Brennan about the biggest stories in sports in 2018.



DON GONYEA, HOST:

Now we head to the Barbershop. That’s where we invite interesting people to talk about what’s in the news. The news this year has been dominated by what’s going on politically in this country. We wanted to take a break from that and talk about some of the biggest sports stories of 2018 – except politics and more followed us over to the sports pages. So joining us in the studio here is Kevin Blackistone. He writes commentary for The Washington Post and is an ESPN analyst.

Hi, Kevin.

KEVIN BLACKISTONE: How’re you doing?

GONYEA: Joining from Dallas is Dave Zirin. He as a sports editor for The Nation. He is also an author, and he hosts The Nation’s “Edge Of Sports” Podcast.

Hi, Dave.

DAVE ZIRIN: Great to be in the Barbershop for a shape-up.

GONYEA: (Laughter) Lastly, joining us from Los Angeles is Christine Brennan. She is a columnist for USA Today.

Hi, Christine.

CHRISTINE BRENNAN: Hi, Don. It’s great to be with you. Thanks.

GONYEA: So all of our panelists agreed that the Larry Nassar story was the biggest of the year. Just to review quickly, he was team doctor for USA Gymnastics and for Michigan State University. Just as an aside, I’ll throw out here that Michigan State is my alma mater. More than 150 women say he sexually assaulted them while they were in his care. He’s been convicted and sentenced to 40 to 175 years in prison. And there have been major shakeups at MSU and in the USA gymnastics program as a result.

So, Christine, we’ll start with you. What at year’s end here now is your biggest takeaway from this?

BRENNAN: Don, this is the worst scandal in U.S. Olympic history by far and the worst sports sex abuse scandal in the world ever. So it couldn’t be worse. It couldn’t be bigger. And I think the ramifications and the reverberations will continue all the way to the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, which now are just a year and a half away, and then even beyond in terms of the structure of the U.S. Olympic Committee.

The fact that leaders of the USOC knew for over a year about the abuse of Larry Nassar and did nothing to protect the young athletes in their care – it was extraordinary. It has been eye-opening. I think it has certainly been a national conversation that, while it is abhorrent, we’re glad to be having it in the sense that hopefully, young people can come out and speak out. Which – speaking out, whether it be the gymnasts like Rachael Denhollander, who started the whole thing, Simone Biles, Aly Raisman and so many others – their ability to speak out, I think, has been extraordinary.

And especially Simone Biles – I’ll just finish the thought with her. Here we have the Olympic gold medalist from 2016, just won her fourth world title, individual all-around world title. She also not only is the greatest athlete in the sport – she is also the conscience of this sport, tweeting about the mistakes of USA Gymnastics, calling her sports leaders on their ineptitude. I cannot think of a better all-around athlete of the year than Simone Biles for the things she was doing as a survivor of Larry Nassar’s abuse while also continuing to be the top gymnast in the world.

GONYEA: Just astounding to watch what she has accomplished this year in the midst of all of this.

BRENNAN: Oh, without a doubt. And the heroism – I mean, we throw the word – Kevin, Dave and I talk a lot about these things – we throw the word hero around and exemplary behavior, and it sometimes gets old. No, no, no. Simone Biles – heroic in every way.

GONYEA: Kevin, we learned through court documents and an IndyStar investigation that Nassar’s history of assault was in part enabled by authorities dismissing years of complaints. What does this tell us about the institutional procedures to protect amateur athletes?

BLACKISTONE: Just how systemic this abuse was and how insidious it was. In fact, we’ve just learned in the past week or so in the Indianapolis Star, which has been covering this story and unearthing the worst of it, that, in fact, the police department in the city of Indianapolis was involved in helping to cover this up for many years. So this was something that had tentacles that stretched far and deep for so long that it just makes you wonder about how we get sucked into sports, particularly when it comes to the Olympics. We can’t forget that gymnastics is one of the most watched sports if not the most watched sports in the summer games next to track and field and how we’ve championed these women who at the time were really girls.

GONYEA: Dave, as all this was unfolding this year, you demanded more action by way of congressional investigation. What could happen? What do you think needs to happen in that area to ensure that future athletes’ll be protected?

ZIRIN: Well, I think we need to have a lot more openness and transparency in what essentially are cartels. And that’s when – whether you’re talking about USA gymnastics, the USOC and, frankly, whether you’re talking about the NCAA or FIFA, these are, in a lot of ways, closed societies, and it’s very difficult to get at the truth and uncover the truth. And you see the effort of what it took in this particular case with Rachel Denhollander and the other brave gymnast that we’ve discussed just to break open the cartel and to let the truth out into the light.

So the idea when calling for congressional oversight, when calling for hearings – it’s all about transparency. It’s all about letting in the light. And it’s all about getting the truth out there so we can actually do what Simone Biles is really calling for, which is to tear this down so we can rebuild it so it’s something that actually nurtures and protects athletes as opposed to exploiting them.

GONYEA: OK, so there’s another big story in the sports world. It’s one that’s been around a while. It’s been more than two years since quarterback Colin Kaepernick took a knee during the national anthem at a San Francisco 49ers game. The impact of that’s still being felt. He made big waves this year by becoming the face of Nike’s latest just do it campaign. But, Kevin, you wrote that that Nike deal muddles Kaepernick’s message. Why’s that?

BLACKISTONE: Well, it really does because there was nothing in that advertisement that played on television that harkened back to the reason that Colin Kaepernick had been imprinted in our psyche. He was not on a knee. His fist was not in the air. He said nothing about police lethality against black men, unarmed black men, in this country, which is what he stood down for and what so many people began following him for.

And so I just think there’s a danger when you commercialize what has become your brand to the extent that Colin Kaepernick has. And I think, as a result of it, we got away from that conversation that he kind of – he didn’t start, but he certainly set ablaze back in 2016.

GONYEA: Christine, this is spilling over into the Super Bowl, which will be held early next year. There are lots of artists who are saying they won’t perform in the Super Bowl halftime show, which is in Atlanta. Atlanta is a hotbed of music, especially hip-hop. Do you see the public divide – and it’s a growing public divide, I think – over this issue going away anytime soon?

BRENNAN: No, I don’t. And I respect Kevin Blackistone more than anyone could know and – on the issue, so I understand exactly, Kevin, the concerns you have. But I also do think there’s another way to look at what’s happened over the last year, and that is, I think, if we look at corporate America giving its – the thumbs up, so to speak, to a cause – in this case, of course, deciding that they wanted to work with Colin Kaepernick in an emotional and powerful message that Kevin points out was not all it could have been.

Is it – is that not victory? It turned out to be a great business decision for Nike, which tells us all we need to know about the demographics for the next 50 years in terms of buying shoes, these young kids, and how they look at the question of political activism much differently maybe than their parents do and in a positive manner.

GONYEA: OK. Our game clock is ticking here. I’d like a one-line answer from each of you – the big stories to watch in 2019. Dave, you first.

ZIRIN: Watch for Colin Kaepernick to re-emerge as a public figure in a very significant way, not just as a symbol, but as an activist.

GONYEA: All right. Christine?

BRENNAN: Athletes speaking out continues to be the big story. The WNBA is going – is in a – quite a labor dispute about equal pay or at least getting better pay for our top female basketball players in the world. And, again, the gymnastics story as we march to Tokyo. We will again continue to see this story play out, I’m sure, as the athletes once again find their voice and continue to speak out.

GONYEA: Kevin – final word?

BLACKISTONE: I think athletes exercising their collective might as labor. We just mentioned the WNBA. There’s also the big court case going on with college athletes.

GONYEA: That’s Kevin Blackistone, columnist for The Washington Post. We’ve also got Christine Brennan of USA Today and Dave Zirin of The Nation.

Thank you all.

BLACKISTONE: Thank you.

BRENNAN: Thank you very much.

ZIRIN: Thank you.

Copyright © 2018 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by Verb8tm, Inc., an NPR contractor, and produced using a proprietary transcription process developed with NPR. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

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Health December 29, 2018

How To Help Kids Overcome Their Fear Of Doctors And Shots

Half of the parents of young children in a recent survey said their kids fear going to the doctor, and dome admit skipping vaccines and needed appointments.

Ryan Johnson for NPR

Like many kids, Lisa Sparrell’s daughter never liked getting shots at the doctor’s office. “At first she’d cry some, but was quickly placated with rewards like a lollipop or a sticker,” says Sparrell, who lives in Honolulu.

But last year, Sparrell’s 10-year-old daughter was diagnosed with a heart defect. In preparation for surgery, the little girl’s trips to the doctor sharply increased –and so did her anxiety.

“The frequency of appointments — many of which included blood draws and IV placements — made her fears worse,” Sparrell says.

The concerned mom tried bringing electronics and books to medical appointments, hoping distraction might short-circuit her daughter’s fear. She also tried addressing the worries by asking the child, ahead of appointments, “OK, what’s our plan?”

None of these tactics worked. In fact, her daughter’s medical anxiety became so severe that she’d scream, “Please don’t do this to me!” whenever a health care provider tried to prick her with a needle.

That might sound extreme, but results of a nationally representative survey, released earlier this year by researchers at the University of Michigan, suggest that a significant number of young children fear doctor visits. In fact, of the 726 parents surveyed, roughly half said their kids disliked going to the doctor.

Not surprisingly, 66 percent of children between the ages of 4 and 5 hated getting shots, while 43 percent of 2- and 3-year-olds fear doctors as part of a more generalized stranger anxiety. The report also revealed that 1 in 25 parents surveyed had postponed a vaccine appointment because of their child’s medical anxiety.

Sparrell says she can relate. “When my daughter screams at the doctor’s office, I feel like I’m doing something terrible — even though it’s the right thing to do.” She, too, has delayed getting her daughter vaccinated against the flu this year, Sparrell admits, just to avoid that stress.

Seeing their child unhappy upsets many parents, especially when they can’t stop the pain. And witnessing an anxious kid’s tears and pleas to avoid getting pricked and probed can raise a parent’s anxiety levels, too.

When this happens, says Sasha Albani, a child and adolescent psychotherapist in San Francisco, many well-meaning parents either ignore the wails or jump into rescue mode. Both approaches can boomerang.

“Parents may avoid discussing the problem because they believe it will make things worse,” Albani says. “Sometimes, they cancel their child’s medical appointment.” Unfortunately, these behaviors undermine a child’s confidence that they can weather difficult situations, and only reinforce kids’ worries.

Children who withdraw from frightening situations or environments may be more likely to struggle with social anxiety, later in life, psychologists find. A 2018 report released by the Child Mind Institute suggests that untreated anxiety also can lead to depression, academic difficulties and substance use down the road.

But there’s hope! Albani suggests parents calm themselves and find age-appropriate ways to help children face their medical fears instead of fleeing them.

For very young kids, who have a hard time putting words to thoughts and emotions, imaginary play with mom or dad before the appointment can help, Albani says.

“Use a toy doctor kit to explain what will happen at the appointment and to discuss your child’s specific worries,” she advises.

Reading books and watching movies depicting children getting shots, going to the hospital, or visiting the doctor can remind kids they’re not alone, and introduce different ways of dealing with the anxiety.

Children under age 6 may benefit from the book, “Daniel Visits the Doctor” by Becky Friedman.

Kids with needle phobias may be helped by reading, “Lions Aren’t Scared of Shots: A Story for Children About Visiting the Doctor,” by Howard S. Bennett. And the book “Imagine a Rainbow: A Child’s Guide for Soothing Pain,” by Brenda S. Miles, may be useful for older kids between the ages of 8 and 10.

Playing The Coping Skills Board Game can bolster the confidence of preteens like Sparrell’s daughter, as it teaches techniques for handling life’s challenges. And smartphone apps like “Stop, Breathe & Think Kids” can be a fun way to learn mindful breathing techniques and other relaxation tips that help turn down the alarm of worrisome feelings.

Doctors have also had some success using more novel interventions with kids, like virtual-reality technology, says Dr. Tom Caruso, a pediatric anesthesiologist at Lucile Packard Children’s Hospital Stanford in Palo Alto, Calif.

“Virtual-reality technology can redirect a child’s attention by immersing them in a more calming experience,” says Caruso, who co-founded the hospital’s Chariot Program, a group dedicated to reducing the anxiety of hospitalized children.

Hospitals and clinics already have begun testing VR to soothe kids’ fears during a range of medical procedures, including IV placement, blood draws and vaccines. A 2017 review suggests the approach lessens pain and anxiety by diverting a child’s attention from the feared stimulus — and may be more effective than other distraction techniques.

But there’s no single best approach to easing fear, Caruso says. “It’s important to use tailored interventions. Children with mild worries may be calmed by listening to music, while others may be helped by virtual-reality techniques.”

Talk therapy can be helpful if anxiety persists or grows. Some children won’t outgrow their fears without such support, doctors find.

“Therapy doesn’t have to last forever,” Albani adds, “and brief cognitive-behavioral treatment or exposure therapy has been shown to help.”

Whatever strategy parents or other caregivers choose, acknowledging the child’s fear is the important first step, therapists say. Just like adults, kids feel validated when we acknowledge their worry, find them help and then let them know that everything is going to be OK.

And kids who learn to feel safe with their doctors early on are more likely to trust them with serious health concerns as they get older.

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