November 24, 2018

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National Report Confirms Climate Change 'Is Affecting Every Sector,' Scientist Says

The economy could take a major hit if climate change continues at its current pace, according to the latest National Climate Assessment. NPR’s Michel Martin speaks with climate scientist Michael Mann.



MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

We hope you had a wonderful holiday connecting with family and friends and perhaps doing a bit of traveling or shopping. Remarkably, a new government report suggests that all of those activities could be affected by climate change. The Fourth National Climate Assessment represents the work of 13 federal agencies. According to the report, if climate change continues at its current pace, the United States will suffer major economic losses from crop failures to severe disruptions to trade to major stress on critical infrastructure – even the possibility of large-scale migration within the U.S. The report also confirms that a wide range of disasters from wildfires and hurricanes to famine and disease are the product of human-made changes to the environment.

We asked Michael Mann, a professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University, to speak with us about the report. And he’s with us now from State College, Pa.

Professor Mann, thank you so much for speaking with us.

MICHAEL MANN: Thanks. Good to be with you.

MARTIN: How significant is this report?

MANN: I consider it quite significant. We’ve just lived through a summer – an unprecedented summer of weather extremes – droughts, wildfires, floods, superstorms. We are now seeing the impacts of climate change play out in real time. They’re no longer subtle. And this report does a very good job in sort of putting meat on the bone – in providing the science behind what we can already see with our own two eyes – that dangerous climate change is already beginning to happen.

MARTIN: The report says that the country’s economic activity, the GDP, is actually going to shrink if the current policies aren’t addressed, right? How does that actually happen? Like, what does that look like?

MANN: Climate change is impacting every sector of our lives and every sector of our economy. There’s a huge national security cost. We have to defend the new coastline and Arctic coastline as the Arctic sea ice disappears. There’s increased conflict around the world as a growing global population competes for less food and water and space. There is a real cost when it comes to agriculture. We’ve seen devastating impacts on the breadbasket of the United States – California, one of our most important agricultural states, that’s been hit very hard by extreme heat and drought. The health care cost – people who are suffering the health consequences, whether it’s infectious diseases or the impact of exposure to extreme heat. And you can go on down the list.

The cost of inaction is reaching into the tens of billions of dollars. And, as this report makes clear, we will be talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in the future. So what is now maybe a 1 percent tax on our economy from climate change impacts will become a 10 percent tax on our economy.

MARTIN: Now, you may consider this to be outside of your wheelhouse, but the timing of the release is curious. The White House released it on Friday afternoon, the day after Thanksgiving. The former Vice President Al Gore views this as the administration trying to bury this news. On the other hand, the White House doesn’t seem to have intervened in the report itself. What do you make of it?

MANN: Yeah. No, this isn’t outside of my wheelhouse. In fact, I’ve written a whole book, “The Hockey Stick And The Climate Wars,” about my experiences as a climate scientist under attack by politicians and fossil fuel industry groups. And Donald Trump has been a godsend to them. He has used the bully pulpit to attack the science of climate change almost on a daily basis. And he has appointed to his Cabinet fossil fuel lobbyists and climate change deniers who have done everything they can to literally dismantle the progress that we actually made in tackling climate change under previous administrations.

And this is the latest example trying to bury a climate report that they couldn’t eliminate. It’s congressionally mandated, so they had to put out the report. And they chose to try to bury it over a Thanksgiving weekend when, ironically, the fact that they were trying to bury this report has probably garnered a lot more attention for this report than we would’ve otherwise seen.

MARTIN: Well, as you noted, the president has consistently pushed for environmental deregulation. And he tweeted just this week, whatever happened to global warming? Evidently, that was in response to the cold snap in the Northeast. On the other hand, the fact is that these 13 federal agencies did produce this extremely blunt report. And so the question that I then have is, is there a track on which progress can be made without executive leadership? Or is that just a fantasy?

MANN: No, absolutely there is. And, in fact, one of the sort of good pieces of news when you look at what’s happening in the United States is that just based on what states are doing – individual states and cities and municipalities – and our largest companies who are all acting on climate change. It turns out that even without Trump’s support we will still meet our obligations under the Paris accord. Most likely, you know, two years from now, we can obviously decide to elect a president who will build on the progress we are already making.

MARTIN: That’s Michael Mann, director of the Earth Systems Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. He was kind enough to talk to us.

– Professor Mann, you so much for talking to us.

MANN: Thank you. It was a pleasure.

Copyright © 2018 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by Verb8tm, Inc., an NPR contractor, and produced using a proprietary transcription process developed with NPR. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

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Twin's Difficult Birth Put A Project Designed To Reduce C-Sections To The Test

Dr. Ruth Levesque (right) hands Shaun McDougall his newborn son Brady at South Shore Hospital in Weymouth, Mass. The birth of the second twin, Bryce, was much trickier than Brady’s. Good communication between the health team and parents was crucial to safely avoiding a C-section, obstetricians say.

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The tiny hand and forearm slipped out too early. Babies are not delivered shoulder first. Dr. Terri Marino, an obstetrician in the Boston area who specializes in high-risk deliveries, tucked it back inside the boy’s mother.

“He was trying to shake my hand and I was like, ‘I’m not having this — put your hand back in there,’ ” Marino would say later, after all 5 pounds, 1 ounce of the baby lay wailing under a heating lamp.

This is the story of how that baby, Bryce McDougall, tested the best efforts of more than a dozen medical staffers at South Shore Hospital in Weymouth, Mass., one day last summer.

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Bryce’s birth also put to the test a new method of reducing cesarean sections that has been developed at Dr. Atul Gawande’s Ariadne Labs, a “joint center for health systems innovation” at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston.

The story starts before Bryce’s birth, on the last day of August at about 9:30 in the morning.

Melisa McDougall has just checked into South Shore, after a routine ultrasound. She’s in her 36th week, pregnant with twin boys. The doctors have warned Melisa that her placenta won’t hold out much longer. She’s propped up in bed, blond hair pulled into a neat bun, makeup still fresh, ordering a sandwich, when her regular obstetrician arrives.

“How are you?” asks Dr. Ruth Levesque, sweeping into the room and clapping her hands. “You’re going to have some babies today! Are you excited?”

The first of the twins — Brady — is head-down, ready for a normal vaginal delivery. But his brother, Bryce, is horizontal at the top of Melisa’s uterus.

That’s one reason Melisa is a candidate for a C-section. Babies do not come out sideways. And there’s another reason most doctors would never consider a vaginal delivery in Melisa’s case, Levesque says. Four years ago, she delivered the twins’ sister by cesarean.

“[Melisa] has a scar on her uterus,” Levesque explains, “so there’s a risk of uterine rupture — very rare, but there’s always a possibility.”

And that possibility may be greater for Melisa because she’s 37 years old and having twins. But the McDougalls hope to have vaginal deliveries for both boys.

“I just feel like it’s better for the kids — better for the babies,” Melisa says.

How the Team Birth Project came to be

Avoiding C-sections is also better for many moms. With cesareans, there’s a longer recovery period, a greater risk of infection and an association with injury and death. And most are not medically necessary, says Dr. Neel Shah, who directs the Delivery Decisions Initiative at Ariadne Labs.

Low-tech, but highly communicative, a whiteboard in the delivery room made sure all members of the birth team were clued in to procedures and preferences throughout labor.

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“We’re fairly confident that, when you look nationally, the plurality — if not the majority — of C-sections are probably avoidable,” says Shah.

Those avoidable C-sections are the focus of the Team Birth Project, designed by Shah with input from roughly 50 doctors, nurses, midwives, doulas, public health specialists and consumer advocates who focus on childbirth. South Shore Hospital is one of the pilot sites for the project.

In describing the collaboration, Shah begins with an acknowledgement: Childbirth is complicated. You’ve got two patients — the mother and the baby — and an ad hoc, often shifting team that at a minimum includes the mom, a nurse and a doctor.

“So you’ve got three people who have to come together and become a very high-performing team in a really short period of time, for one of the most important moments in a person’s life,” Shah says.

And this team has to perform at its best during an unpredictable event: labor.

Shah says doctors and nurses generally agree about three things: when a mom is in active labor; when a mom can definitely try for a vaginal delivery; and when she must have a C-section.

“And then there’s this huge gray zone,” Shah says. “And actually, everything about the Team Birth Project is about solving for the gray.”

To avoid unnecessary C-sections when what to do isn’t clear, this hospital, in conjunction with the Ariadne project, has changed the way labor and delivery is handled from start to finish.

First, women aren’t admitted until they are in active labor. Secondly, the mom’s preferences — such as whether she would like an epidural or not and whether she wants to have “skin-to-skin contact” with the baby immediately after birth — help guide the members of the labor team. The team members map the delivery plan — including Mom’s preferences and the medical team’s guidance — on a whiteboard, like the one in Melisa’s room.

For the births of Bryce and Brady McDougall, the white erasable planning board gets a lot of use.

Under “team,” Dr. Levesque and registered nurse Patty Newbitt write their names. Melisa and Shaun McDougall are also listed as equal partners. The names of other family members or nurses may be added and erased as labor progresses. Shah’s idea is that this team will “huddle” regularly throughout the labor to discuss the evolving birth plan.

The birth plan itself is divided into three separate elements on the board: maternal (the mom), fetal (the baby) and progress (in terms of how the labor is progressing). A mom with high blood pressure may need special attention — and that would be noted on the board — but she could still have a normal labor and vaginal delivery.

Good communication is key

Dr. Kim Dever, who chairs the OB-GYN department at South Shore, highlights a section of the whiteboard called “Next Assessment.”

That category is included on the board, Dever says, “because one of the things I often heard from patients is that they didn’t know what was going to happen next. Now they know.”

Asking the mom — and the couple — about their preferences for the delivery is crucial, too, Levesque says.

“It forces us to stop and to think about everything with the patient,” she explains.”It makes us verbalize our thought process, which I think is good.”

It took a large team — including parents — at South Shore Hospital to deliver this baby, Bryce McDougall.

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Shaun McDougall walks across the room to get a closer look at the whiteboard.

“Honestly, it seems like common sense,” he says. “I would always think the nurses would have something like this, but to have it out where mom and dad can see it — I think it’s pretty cool.”

With Melisa McDougall’s plan in place, everyone settles in, to wait. About four hours later, Melisa isn’t yet feeling contractions. Levesque breaks the water sac around Brady.

“Looks nice and clear,” Levesque reports. “Hey bud, come on and hang out with us,” she says to the baby, tickling his head.

“So, you’re going to keep leaking fluid until you leak babies,” the doctor explains to Melisa. “Whenever you start getting uncomfortable, we’ll get you an epidural at that point.”

Levesque moves to the board and adds updates: Melisa is 4 centimeters dilated; her waters broke at 13:26; the next assessment will be after she gets an epidural.

The medical team insisted ahead of time that Melisa agree to be numbed from the waist down if she wants to deliver Bryce — the second twin — vaginally. Melissa agreed. The obstetricians may need to rotate the baby in her uterus, find a foot and pull Bryce out, causing pain most women would not tolerate.

One of those doctors — Marino — peeks into the room and waves.

“Just came to say hi,” says Marino, who has more experience than most obstetricians in delivering babies positioned like Bryce. Along with Levesque, Marino has been seeing Melisa regularly in office visits.

Shaun McDougall asks the physicians if they’ll pose for a picture with his wife.

“Can we make funny faces?” asks Levesque.

“I want you to,” says Shaun. “You guys are like her favorite people on the planet.”

As the hours tick by, there’s a shift change, and registered nurse Barbara Fatemi joins the McDougall team. She checks Melisa’s pain level regularly to determine when she’s ready for the epidural.

Melisa says she isn’t feeling much but adds that she has a high tolerance for pain. Shaun tells Fatemi he sees the strain on his wife’s face. Fatemi acts on Shaun’s assessment and calls an anesthesiologist to prepare the epidural, something Shaun later says reinforces his feeling that they’re a team.

Levesque soon arrives for the promised “next assessment.” Melisa is now 10 centimeters dilated and ready to deliver — but she must hold on until nurses can get her into an operating room.

Levesque will still attempt to deliver both babies vaginally, she explains, but in the operating room, Melisa will be in the right place if Bryce doesn’t shift his position inside the uterus, and the doctor needs to do a last-minute cesarean.

“I’ll see you in a few minutes. No pushing without me, OK?” Levesque says over her shoulder as she heads to the operating room to prep.

“I’ll try,” Melisa says, weakly. In a minute, nurses are rolling her down the hall, following Levesque.

Almost five years ago, two women who were wheeled into this hospital’s operating rooms during childbirth died after undergoing C-sections. Though state investigators found no evidence of substandard care, Dever says the hospital scrutinized everything.

“When you have something like that happen, that expedites your efforts,” she says. “Exponentially.”

Now, Dever says, she sees an opportunity, through the Team Birth Project, to model changes that could help women far and wide.

“I would love women everywhere to be able to come in and have a safe birth and healthy baby,” she says. “That’s why I’m doing it.”

“They did not flinch”

Dever is about to see her pilot study of the Team Birth Project pushed to new limits by little Bryce McDougall. First, though, Melisa must deliver Bryce’s brother, Brady. Even his birth, the one that was expected to be easier, is more difficult than anticipated.

Bent nearly in half, her face beet red, Melisa strains for five pushes. She throws up, then gets back to laboring. And suddenly, there he is.

“Oh my goodness, Brady, oh Brady,” wails Shaun. He follows a nurse holding his son over to a warmer.

Marino takes Shaun’s place next to Levesque, who has reached inside Melisa to get the next twin. Levesque’s mission is to grab Bryce’s feet and guide him out. But everything feels like fingers, not toes.

That’s a hand,” she murmurs. “That’s a hand, too.”

Marino rolls an ultrasound across Melisa’s belly, hoping the scan will show a foot. But Bryce’s feet are out of sight and out of reach.

Marino has had more experience than most obstetricians with transverse babies, and this procedure, known as a breech extraction; she asks to try. She reaches into Melisa’s uterus while Levesque moves to Melisa’s right side and uses her forearm to shift Bryce and push him down. Dever, the head of obstetrics, has come into the room and takes over the ultrasound. At least six doctors and nurses encircle Melisa, whose face is taut. Shaun frowns.

“Babe, you OK?” he asks.

Melisa nods. Bryce’s heart rate is steady. But there’s still no sign of a foot. One little hand slips out and Marino nudges it back in.

“Open the table,” says Marino, her voice strained.

It’s open and ready, her colleagues say, referring to the array of sterile surgical instruments that Marino may soon need, to begin a C-section.

For 36 seconds, this room with more than a dozen adults grows oddly quiet. Everyone is watching Marino twist her arm this way and that, determined to find Bryce’s feet. Levesque leans hard into Melisa’s belly. Shaun bites his lip. Then Marino yanks at something — and her gloved, bloodied hand emerges, clenching baby Bryce by his two teeny legs.

“Oh babe, here he comes, here he comes — Woo!” squeals Shaun.

Shaun is overcome with emotion again. Melisa manages an exhausted giggle. Baby Bryce keeps everyone waiting a few more seconds and then howls.

Levesque starts to stitch up a small tear for Melisa, and Marino comes around to congratulate the new mom.

“He was fighting you, huh?” Melisa says, and laughs.

Outside the operating room, Levesque and Marino look relieved and elated. Both agree that most doctors would have delivered Bryce by C-section. But at South Shore, the McDougalls found a hospital that has challenged itself to perform fewer C-sections and a doctor with experience in these unusual deliveries — one who knew and respected the parents’ preference.

“They specifically wanted to have a vaginal delivery of both babies,” Marino says — and that was on her mind during the difficult moments.

A nurse checks the breastfeeding progress with Melisa and Brady. Melisa says she’s grateful she was able to delivery both babies vaginally. “I did not want to have a natural birth and a C-section,” she says. “That would be a brutal recovery.”

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Bryce was fine, says Marino, so the deciding factor for her was that Shaun and Melisa did not panic.

“They did not flinch — they were like, ‘Keep going,’ ” Marino recalls. “Sometimes the patient will say ‘stop,’ and then you have to stop.”

The babies’ father says he came close to requesting that, in the very last minute before Bryce was born.

“That part with the arm — it was pretty aggressive,” Shaun says.

But in that moment, he adds, the feeling that he and Melisa were part of the team made a difference.

“It made us more comfortable,” Shaun says, and that comfort translated to trust. “We trusted the decisions they were making.”

Melisa says she’s grateful for the vaginal delivery.

“I did not want to have a natural birth and a C-section,” she says. “That would be a brutal recovery.”

Instead, 30 minutes after Marino pulled Bryce out of her, Melisa is nursing Brady and talking with family members via FaceTime.

Next assessment for The Team Birth Project

South Shore began using the Team Birth approach in April. Three other hospitals are also pilot sites: Saint Francis in Tulsa, Okla.; EvergreenHealth in Kirkland, Wash.; and Overlake in Redmond, Wash. The test period runs for two years. In the first four months at South Shore, the hospital’s primary, low-risk C-section rate dropped from 31 percent to 27 percent — about four fewer C-sections each month.

Experts who contributed to the development of the Team Birth Project are anxious to see whether other hospitals can lower their rates of C-section and keep them down.

“Once you get past the early adopters, how do you demonstrate the benefits for others that aren’t willing to change?” asks Gene Declercq, a professor of community health sciences at Boston University School of Public Health.

Declercq notes that a few insurers are beginning to force that question, refusing to include in their networks hospitals that have high C-section rates, or high rates of other unnecessary, if not harmful, care.

Declercq says the project’s focus on communication in the labor and delivery room makes sense because many physicians decide when to perform a cesarean based on clinical habit or the culture of their hospital.

“If you can impact that decision-making process, you can perhaps change the culture that might lead to unnecessary cesareans,” says Declercq.

The federal government has set a target rate for hospitals: No more than 23.9 percent of first-time, low-risk mothers should be delivering by C-section. The U.S. average in 2016 was 25.7 percent.

The target was put in place because research has shown that if a woman’s first delivery is a C-section, her subsequent deliveries are highly likely to be C-sections, too — raising her (and her baby’s) risk for complications and even death.

This story is part of NPR’s reporting partnership with WBUR and Kaiser Health News.

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Saturday Sports: Basketball, Football and Golf

Scott Simon talks with NPR Sports Correspondent Tom Goldman about basketball, football, and golf.



SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

Brexit, shmexit (ph). It’s time for sports.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

SIMON: The Warriors snap a losing streak, but there’s still a cold chill in the locker room and on the bench. And are Da Bears b-back (ph)? NPR’s Tom Goldman joins us now from – are you in your brother-in-law’s wood shop in Eugene, Ore., Tom? Is that true?

TOM GOLDMAN, BYLINE: I have turned off the skill saw for a few moments, Scott, where I’ve been working on a full-life sculpture of you.

SIMON: (Laughter).

GOLDMAN: Similar to the David, although clothed.

SIMON: Oh, oh. Well, thank you.

GOLDMAN: I’m here. I’m here for the holidays. And what better place to talk sports than a wood shop? So let’s do it.

SIMON: Right, efficient and all that stuff. Listen; that match play, or whatever you call it, last night between Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, which Phil Mickelson won in extra holes, or however you say it – two of them went home with $9 million between them. Is this a real sports event?

GOLDMAN: No. It’s pretty made up, Scott. The golf, apparently, wasn’t that good either. And I say apparently because I didn’t interrupt a second of my Black Friday to watch. And I say that as a golf lover and a golf watcher…

SIMON: Yeah.

GOLDMAN: …But not this one.

SIMON: And a great golfer, yeah.

GOLDMAN: Yeah, right. Well, thank you – hardly that. Let’s clarify the money, though. It was winner-take-all. So Phil made off with the 9 million.

SIMON: Oh.

GOLDMAN: He did donate part of it to charity, including a fund for children who lost a parent in last year’s Las Vegas mass shooting. This event was in Las Vegas, so some good came out of a silly event. Bah humbug. Wrong holiday, but bah humbug.

SIMON: Well, it’s coming up to the right holiday.

Golden State Warriors ended a losing streak last night. But prior to that, they’d lost four games in a row, unprecedented since the great Steve Kerr became head coach. He’s the smartest, most decent man in sports, if not the country at this point. But does mediating this undiplomatic dispute between Draymond Green and Kevin Durant need a Gandhi?

GOLDMAN: There’s an image for you. I think it might need a little something extra. You know, we’ve learned what, reportedly, was at the heart of the recent spat that led to Draymond Green’s suspension – the spat with Kevin Durant. It appears to be something more than just creative tension between two very creative basketball players.

Green reportedly made a comment in reference to Durant’s anticipated free agency at the end of the season and his possible departure from Golden State. According to Chris Haynes, respected NBA writer, Green said something like, we don’t need you. We won without you. Leave.

You know, Scott, that’s the kind of comment that can linger and poison the chemistry on a team. But if any coaching staff can deal with this, though, you have to think it’s the Warriors’, and especially Kerr, as you say, a very bright man who really understands the psychology of uniting a group of very talented athletes who have very huge egos.

SIMON: Yeah. He has more championship rings than he has fingers, if I’m not mistaken, between the six with the Chicago Bulls and the five in…

GOLDMAN: That’s right, yeah.

SIMON: Yeah, no, unless he’s grown extra fingers, and I wouldn’t put that past Steve Kerr.

Listen; have you noticed the Chicago Bears won their fifth consecutive game, albeit it was only against the Lions? But they are now 8-3 despite having a highly uninspiring quarterback who is out, and they had to go with a lackluster substitute. But, boy, that defense. (Growls) They even scored the winning point.

GOLDMAN: Yeah. (Imitating Scott Simon growling).

SIMON: And it’s against everything that football is supposed to be. What? Yes? They have me on the bench sometimes to inspire players. I just go. They come back after the play, and I go (growls).

GOLDMAN: You sound like…

SIMON: Yeah? Sorry.

GOLDMAN: You’re a Monster of the Midway. You are that, Scott.

You know, this defense is for real, ranked in the top 10 in the NFL and anchored by the very active and fearsome pass rusher Khalil Mack. Offensively, the Bears are not in the same class as the Saints or the Chiefs or the Rams – those three teams are kind of defining this new NFL surge in offensive play.

Still, the Bears, as you say, are 8-3. They’re leading the NFC North division. It’s looking – they’re looking to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2012, and perhaps the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Looks like Chicagoans won’t have to spend the winter just waiting for the Cubs to come back in the spring.

SIMON: Tom Goldman, thanks so much.

GOLDMAN: You’re welcome.

Copyright © 2018 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by Verb8tm, Inc., an NPR contractor, and produced using a proprietary transcription process developed with NPR. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

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