January 2, 2017

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Entertainment January 2, 2017

Box Office Report: ‘Rogue One’ and ‘Sing’ Drive U.S. Box Office To All-Time High

Here’s your estimated 4-day box office returns (new releases bolded):

1. Rogue One – $64.3 million ($439.7 million total)

2. Sing – $56.4 million ($180.0 million total)

3. Passengers – $20.7 million ($66.0 million total)

4. Moana – $14.3 million ($213.3 million total)

5. Why Him? – $13.0 million ($37.5 million total)

6. Fences – $12.7 million ($32.4 million total)

7. La La Land – $12.3 million ($37.0 million total)

8. Assassin’s Creed – $10.8 million ($41.9 million total)

9. Manchester by the Sea – $5.4 million ($29.6 million total)

10. Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them – $5.4 million ($225.4 million total)

The Big Stories

Christmas came early for Hollywood this year. That was the actual Christmas, though — the one with all the presents and merriment. Hollywood’s real present came afterwards as the 2016 box office passed the $11 billion mark for the second straight year on the 26th and then surpassed last year’s $11.12 billion on the 28th. Despite not having the greatest of holiday seasons in retrospect, this total was aided in part by nine films grossing over $300 million this year. Giving that some further perspective, there were only nine $300 million grossers from 1980-2001. There have only been three years with five or more films reaching that landmark and the record was six in 2015. With a number of big holiday releases expected to continue drawing audiences in January, not to mention the films slated to expand next month, there is hope that the total could actually reach $12 billion.

An Old Hope

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story saw an unfortunate bump in its attendance last week with the passing of Carrie Fisher. Even yours truly attended for a second time Tuesday evening, which was the second highest Tuesday gross ever in December (The Force Awakens was first) and the 7th highest ever. Estimates are now pointing to the film as reaching over $439 million through Monday which will put it in the top 13 of all-time domestic grossers. All signs suggest that $500 million is inevitable; the 7th film ever to reach that milestone in the U.S. Is $600 million in the cards? At the moment it is about $20 million off the pace of Marvel’s The Avengers, which grossed its final $160+ million from May 22-Sept. 13. Rogue One has another week of Christmas vacation for schools in some part but otherwise will have to make its cash in January; a month where Titanic made $188.2 million back in 1997. As Princess Leia would say, “Hope.”

Life, Animated

Doctor Strange and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them remain your second and third best U.S. grossers for the holiday, but maybe not for long. As this column has stated for weeks, Moana was on a path to $230 million and is estimated at over $213 million as of this Monday. Good enough for fourth place currently but now it upped its endgame to potentially somewhere around $245 million, which should be more than good enough to best Doctor Strange as Marvel’s latest is looking to come in under $235 million; better than Thor: The Dark World but less than Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

This would give Disney the top three films of the holiday season were it not for Illumination’s Sing, which as I expected is laying waste to family wallets at the moment. In 13 days it is at $180 million. That is about $45 million less than Illumination’s current U.S. champ, The Secret Life of Pets, had at this point and $54 million behind Minions; both of which had summer days to push them well over $300 million each. As reported last week, Sing was destined to become the highest-grossing animated film ever released in December by a wide margin, so there is no real precedent for its prospects going forward.

Only eight films ever released in December went on to pass $300 million. Two are Star Wars, another two came from the mind of James Cameron and the other four are of the Tolkien variety. Sing is within a million of the pace of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, whose 13th day of release came on Dec. 26. That film finished its run with $303 million and Sing‘s weekend haul is well ahead of it. So once again, “Hope.”

Not Singing Their Praises

Between Passengers, Assassin’s Creed and Why Him?, the three films could not even total 90% together at Rotten Tomatoes. Nor can their total grosses equal that of Sing.

The biggest disappointment of the three is clearly Sony’s Passengers. Critics have once again been blamed for its poor performance by pointing out its misleading trailer campaign as well as its rapey vibe, but it has been holding steady if just not spectacularly after its second weekend. At $66 million through Monday it will be $3 million off the pace of Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb which finished with $113 million. As Passengers is also about $3 million off that film’s weekend pace too it may be headed for a rough landing. Until the overseas numbers come in, the final word on the film’s impact on Sony’s bottom line for 2016 will yet to be written. But if it fails to reach $100 million in the U.S. which is a real possibility it’s going to take about $235 million in international dollars to put in the black column.

That is likely where Fox’s Assassin’s Creed is headed. Try finding a positive word said about this thing on Twitter. The 17%-rated, “B+” Cinemascored video game adaptation has at least surpassed 47 Ronin at the U.S. box office. Can it grab the $113 million the Keanu Reeves bomb did overseas, though? (It has made over $44 million to date.) It won’t be as big a bomb but any film needing to gross over $300 million outside the U.S. just to break even is not going to look good for any studio.

Fox’s self-competitor, Why Him?, certainly will not be doing that kind of business overseas ($14.3 million so far) but it may actually outlast and outgross Assassin’s Creed in the U.S. It has already jumped into the top ten and is close to the pace of Fox’s $50 million bomb Exodus: Gods and Kings, which made $65 million in the U.S. Even with that total it will still have to reach $50 million internationally otherwise Fox will be headed into 2017 with seven straight losers, with Gore Verbinski’s ambitious A Cure for Wellness on Feb. 17 and the “R”-rated Logan to kick off March. Though one film of theirs may be able to break the losing streak before then.

Your Oscar Players

Three likely Best Picture contenders remain in the top ten this week. The clear champion now and perhaps on Oscar night too is Damien Chazelle’s La La Land. Marginally expanded to an even 750 theaters this week, it is estimated to have over $37 million by Monday night. That is halfway to surpassing Boo! A Madea Halloween as Lionsgate’s top grossing film of 2016. That would also put it into the Top 15 all-time for the studio; a list that currently includes four Hunger Games, two Divergents, two Saws, two Expendables, two Tyler Perrys, a Twilight, a Now You See Me and Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. In other words, an old-fashioned musical with Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone making that list is incredibly impressive.

Paramount is likely thinking the same thing about Denzel Washington’s Fences, which is expected to be over $32 million on Monday. It is already in wide release so its numbers aren’t quite as impressive as La La‘s, but the film has already surpassed Denzel’s directorial debut, The Great Debaters, and is likely headed past Ava DuVernay’s Selma from 2014 which barely squeaked out a few Oscar nods. Fences is all but certain to do much better all around, including winning at least one for Viola Davis. She would beat Michelle Williams out for Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea, itself possibly headed for wins for Best Actor (Casey Affleck) and Original Screenplay for Lonergan. With over $29 million expected by Monday it is already the top-grossing Sundance film for 2016 and now has its eyes set to supplant Brooklyn‘s $38.3 million as the top-fest grosser from last year.

Your Limited Players

Awaiting their expansions in January to help inch the box office towards its $12 billion target are a great number of acclaimed titles. Leading the pack in just 25 theaters is Fox’s Hidden Figures, which is expected to have $2.6 million after Monday. Peter Berg’s Patriots Day has made over $680,000 so far in just seven theaters. In 2013 his Lone Survivor (also with Mark Wahlberg) made $355,434 in its first 15 days in just two theaters and opened to $37.8 million in its wide expansion. So watch for Patriots Day‘s numbers on Jan. 13-15.

Only in four theaters are an interesting five-some of titles. Martin Scorsese’s Silence is currently your leader with over $337,000. Pedro Almodovar’s Julieta is around $223,000. Mike Mills’ 20th Century Women is at $213,000 and J.A. Bayona’s A Monster Calls is at an unfortunately paltry $79,000 before it goes wide this week. Tucked in there is also Ben Affleck’s Live By Night. Warner Bros. kept this from most critic’s group, not even giving it a chance for award consideration. As the film sits at 35% at Rotten Tomatoes, one can start to see why. This is a major disappointment given Affleck’s track record as a director, especially coming off the Oscar-winning Argo. With only $124,000 in limited release so far, look for Patriots Day to win that battle of the Bostonians when both open wide on the 13th.

– Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on WGN Radio with Nick Digilio as well as on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast.

[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]

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Business January 2, 2017

Trump Organization Proceeds With Two Major Indonesia Projects

New York Times Washington correspondent Eric Lipton speaks with NPR’s Audie Cornish about how two projects in Indonesia could create conflicts of interest for him as he takes office.

AUDIE CORNISH, HOST:

Just last month, Donald Trump said that he would leave his businesses in the hands of his children. The president-elect announced on Twitter that there would be no new deals done during my terms in office. But the Trump organization has been moving forward with two projects in Indonesia, projects that put Trump into partnership with major political figures there. Eric Lipton writes about this in The New York Times. He joins us now via Skype. Welcome to the program.

ERIC LIPTON: Thank you.

CORNISH: So the deals you write about in Indonesia are for two resorts that will essentially, as I understand it, license the Trump name and be managed by Trump businesses. Who are these Indonesia business contacts?

LIPTON: The primary partner there is a billionaire media figure who is known by short name of Hary Tanoe and is building these projects in Bali and Lido in two prominent resort areas in Indonesia. And so there are resort developments with golf courses, and they will be branded as Trump buildings, and they will be managed by the Trump Organization.

CORNISH: Now, how close are these relationships, and why do they raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest?

LIPTON: In the case of a business partner who is going to be developing the hotels, he and the Trump family have become relatively close. There are many photographs of them with Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump. He visited the Trump Towers. And they are side partners in this deal, and a deal which is already paying somewhere between $1 million and $10 million a year – that’s a big range but we don’t know the exact amount, it’s in the financial disclosure reports – to the Trump Organization. So they are going to be working quite closely because not only will the Trump name be on those towers, but the Trump Organization will be managing the properties.

CORNISH: Now, in what ways could this complicate the U.S. relationship with Indonesia? Is that the concern here?

LIPTON: Any time you have a president whose family is involved in international financial business arrangements, it creates at a minimum a question as to will those business relationships affect the president or his administration in terms of how they interact with that foreign country. And so simply having a business relationship with a prominent, you know, businessman in that country is an unusual and unprecedented thing in American history. On the surface there’s that, but then in this case it’s more complicated because his business partner in Indonesia has political ambitions himself. He ran for vice president unsuccessfully. And he’s talking already about possibly running for president of Indonesia. So this guy is a political figure as well as a business leader.

CORNISH: We’ve heard about how the Trump family has been dealing with their charitable foundations and projects. Can you talk about what action the Trump Organization has taken in the aftermath of the election? Have we actually seen fewer deals or deals dropped? What’s been going on?

LIPTON: There have been a number of deals that they are pulling out of or they’re terminating including in Argentina, in Brazil, in Azerbaijan, in the country of Georgia, and at least one project in India that they have told The New York Times in a series of interviews that they are no longer going to go ahead with. In some cases, for example, there’s a hotel in Rio that is already constructed that they’re going to remove the Trump name from. And there’s also a building in Azerbaijan that’s largely completed which that – will no longer have the Trump name, but it has not yet opened. And in those cases, they’re saying that the partners did not comply with the standards of the marketing and branding agreements, and so therefore they are terminating those.

So there are quite a number in different places around the world where they are pulling out of, and that will make their situation slightly less complicated. But there are still many others that will be on the books and continue to go forward while he’s president.

CORNISH: Eric Lipton is an investigative reporter for The New York Times. Thank you for taking the time to speak with us.

LIPTON: Thank you.

(SOUNDBITE OF M.O.O.N SONG “DUST”)

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Health January 2, 2017

Obamacare Is First Item On Congress' Chopping Block

Barack Obama signs the Affordable Care Act in the East Room of the White House in Washington on March 23, 2010. J. Scott Applewhite/AP hide caption

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J. Scott Applewhite/AP

Congress is back in session on Tuesday, and leaders of both houses say their first order of business will be to repeal Obamacare.

If they do that, it will be a slap in the face to President Barack Obama just three weeks before he leaves the White House. The Affordable Care is the outgoing president’s signature achievement, marked by an elaborate signing ceremony in March 2010 at the White House, with lofty speeches from the vice president and Obama himself.

“Today, after almost a century of trying, today after over a year of debate, today, after all the votes have been tallied, health insurance reform becomes law in the United States of America,” Obama said that day, to long applause from the assembled crowd.

And Joe Biden famously leaned over to remind the president that it was “a big ***ing deal.”

But Republicans have been vowing to repeal the law since the day it passed, and they’ll soon have a sympathetic president in the White House to sign whatever bill they send him.

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“We will repeal the disaster known as Obamacare and create new health care, all sorts of reforms that work for you and your family,” President-elect Donald Trump vowed last month in Orlando.

That new health care plan hasn’t been fleshed out yet by Trump or his allies in Congress. So they say they’ll vote to get rid of Obamacare, but delay its demise until they come up with a replacement that will cover the millions of people who have insurance thanks to the law.

But insurance companies and health care analysts are worried.

“I don’t see how you talk to any [insurance] carrier and give them any desire to hang around to see what they replace it with,” says Dr. Kavita Patel, an internist at Johns Hopkins University Hospital and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “Why would you stick around for that?”

Patel worked in the White House and helped create the Affordable Care Act. But she’s not alone in her concern.

Last month the health insurance trade group America’s Health Insurance Plans sent a letter to lawmakers asking them to keep in place many of the financial incentives that are central to the law — including subsidies for patients to help them buy insurance and cover copayments, and a provision that eliminates some taxes on insurers.

The American Academy of Actuaries also warned in its own letter that a repeal of the ACA without replacing it would be dangerous to the long-term health of the insurance market.

Still, Republicans appear determined to move ahead with the vote as soon as this week.

Some history:

Democrats rammed the Affordable Care Act through Congress in 2010 with no Republican support.

It was a huge, complicated law and, like most legislation, it was flawed. Over the subsequent six years, Republicans, who were angry at the way the Affordable Care Act was passed, refused to cooperate in any actions that would be seen as helping it succeed. Instead, they promised in speeches and television interviews to repeal it entirely. In fact, the House has voted more than 60 times over the years to do just that.

Then-Speaker of the House John Boehner stands next to a printed version of the Affordable Care Act during a Capitol Hill news conference on May 16, 2013. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images hide caption

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Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

“There’s no getting around the fact that lots of Republicans campaigned hard against the ACA and a lot of them won, including the person at the top of the ticket,” says James Capretta, a scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

But even with control of both chambers of Congress and with Trump in the White House, Republicans can’t simply repeal Obamacare. They would need the help of at least a handful of Democrats to overcome a filibuster.

Democrats can’t, however, filibuster budget bills. So Republican leaders have decided to defund Obamacare, eliminating the tax penalties for those who don’t buy insurance and the subsidies to help people pay their premiums. Essentially, that guts the law’s main elements.

The problem for Republicans is that today, an estimated 20 million people get their insurance through Obamacare. About 10 million buy policies through the exchanges set up by state and federal governments, and most of those patients get subsidies to help pay the premiums.

And millions more are covered because the law allows states to expand the number of people who are eligible for Medicaid, the health insurance program for the poor.

So people who had pre-existing conditions that shut them out of the insurance market before the ACA passed, or people who had reached insurer-imposed lifetime benefit limits, generally like the law.

But, then there are people like Will Denecke, who is mad because his insurance costs have gone up since Obamacare passed. Before the law was enacted, he spent about $340 a month on health insurance.

“Incredibly, we got a notice from my health care company, Moda, which has been having financial problems, that my premium was going up to $930,” he said last October.

He’s a self-employed urban planning consultant in Portland, Ore., and, unlike most people in Obamacare, he makes too much money to qualify for government subsidies.

“I’ve had health insurance my whole life, but it’s just offensive in principle to think of spending $1,000 a month on health care insurance when there is a good chance I won’t need it,” he said.

He was considering just letting his coverage lapse.

And, on the other side, you’ve got people like Leigh Kvetko of Dallas. She takes 10 medications every day because she’s had two organ transplant procedures, and the drugs are part of her daily regimen to survive. After Obamacare passed, she was able quit her job at a big company and start a business with her husband, because she could finally get individual insurance.

“This particular plan, the fact that they cannot discriminate against me because of how I was born, was a lifesaver, literally,” she says.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady told the Washington Times last month that consumers needn’t worry. “We can assure the American public that the plan they’re in right now, the Obamacare plans, will not end on Jan. 20, that we’re going to be prepared and ready with new options tailored for them,” he said.

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