September 3, 2015

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August Jobless Data To Influence Fed's Decision On Hiking Interest Rates

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, speaks during a Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System meeting in July.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, speaks during a Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System meeting in July. Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP hide caption

itoggle caption Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

There’s a special significance to the monthly jobs report that will be released Friday morning. It could tip the balance for the Federal Reserve. Policymakers are weighing whether to raise the Fed’s official interest rates later this month. It’s something the Fed hasn’t done since before the Great Recession.

Surveys of economists are predicting that job growth in August will be right around the current trend of about 220,000 new jobs a month, and they think the unemployment rate will tick down a notch to 5.2 percent.

Megan Greene, chief economist at Manulife Asset Management, says that sounds about right. But she says she doesn’t think that will necessarily convince the Fed to raise rates later this month. She says the reason to hike rates is to head off inflation, and there’s no inflation in sight.

Greene believes that’s because U.S. wage growth has stagnated as U.S. workers compete with an oversupply of cheap labor around the globe.

“As long as there is this oversupply of cheap labor, we’re not going to see wages start to push up in the U.S. really, and as long as wages aren’t pushing up, inflation isn’t pushing up,” Greene says.

If wage increases are meager, workers don’t have enough disposable income to compete for goods and inflate the price of things like houses or furniture or restaurant meals.

But the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Stanley Fischer said last week that if the Fed waits until it actually sees inflation, it will be too late. And many economists argue it’s time for the Fed to act. They point to strong auto sales, growth in construction spending, an unemployment rate heading toward 5 percent and solid growth numbers in the spring.

But Greene isn’t convinced. “The labor market is very slowly improving but I don’t think it justifies a rate hike. Particularly when you consider all the risks, externally, and that includes China and volatility coming from China, but also don’t forget the Greeks are going back to the polls on September 20th,” she says.

That’s just three days after the Fed meeting. Greene says there’s a good chance the Greek outcome could spark more financial uncertainty. That would add more volatility to global financial markets still recovering from their convulsions over the slowdown in China’s growth. Greene says the U.S. economy could suffer negative impacts as a result, so the Fed should remain cautious.

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Today in Movie Culture: The Science of 'The Matrix,' Martin Scorsese in Focus and More

Here are a bunch of little bites to satisfy your hunger for movie culture:

Movie Science of the Day:

Speaking of Keanu Reeves, for Nerdist Kyle Hill looks into the plausibility of The Matrix, specifically how humans serve as batteries for the title virtual world:

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Movie Parody of the Day:

Your kids have to learn about sexual pleasure sometime, right? Cookie Monster stars in Sesame Street‘s take on When Harry Met Sally, and they do go there with a parody of the “I’ll have what she’s having” bit:

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Filmmaker in Focus:

Filmscalpel spotlights close-ups on eyes in Martin Scorsese movies:

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Online Film School:

Learn what a Dutch Angle is from Fandor Keyrame and this illustrative montage of shots from famous movies:

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Cosplay of the Day:

One woman made herself up to look like Batman, The Joker and Harley Quinn, all new Suicide Squad versions (via KamiKame):

Film Festival Trailer of the Day:

It’s not enough that the programming for this year’s Beyond Fest is amazing, but they had to go and dub a scene from The Shining that makes it all sound even more exciting/terrifying:

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Film Festival Contest of the Day:

Fantastic Fest is crowd-sourcing its bumpers again, this time holding a contest where you remake a scene from your favorite movie, but cast only kids as the characters. Here’s one based on Paul Thomas Anderson‘s Magnolia. Warning NSFW language.

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Supercut of the Day:

We’ve seen enough supercuts of villains lately, so it’s time for the heroes to get their spotlight (via Geek Tyrant):

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Classic Trailer of the Day:

This weekend marks the 15th anniversary of the premiere of Christopher Nolan‘s Memento at the Venice Film Festival. Celebrate the occasion by watching the innovative thriller’s original trailer below.

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Professional Soccer Sets Welcoming Tone For Refugees In Germany

Supporters of FC Bayern Munich celebrate the club's 25th Bundesliga title in Munich on May 24, 2015.

Supporters of FC Bayern Munich celebrate the club’s 25th Bundesliga title in Munich on May 24, 2015. CHRISTOF STACHE/AFP/Getty Images hide caption

itoggle caption CHRISTOF STACHE/AFP/Getty Images

Football giant FC Bayern Munich today pledged to help refugees in Germany. In a statement it announced plans to donate 1 million euros from a friendly match to support refugee projects and to establish a “training camp” for refugee youth in which participants will train at FC Bayern, take German language classes and be provided with meals and football jerseys.

The statement read in part:

“Germany is currently experiencing its greatest influx of refugees for many decades. This presents a special challenge to the state and society. FC Bayern München will play an active part in meeting the challenge and, working closely with the city of Munich and state of Bavaria, contribute financial, material and practical help.”

In the midst of a migration crisis, European countries are straining to integrate refugees into their societies, and none more so than Germany. The German government has welcomed more middle eastern and north African refugees in recent years than any other country, and as we reported earlier this week, there has been political push-back and an increase in xenophobic attitudes.

But Bundesliga, Germany’s professional soccer league, is helping to roll out the welcome mats.

Last week, fans hung banners from the stands in stadiums across the country that read “Welcome Refugees.” Borussia Dortmund, the club currently atop the league’s standings, even invited 220 refugees to a match, according to The Telegraph.

Amazing, inspiring scenes at Germany’s football grounds this weekend. “Refugees welcome”
Via @markito0171 pic.twitter.com/Fm4s9nDRJ0

— paulkirby (@paul1kirby) August 30, 2015

While professional sports teams around the world often engage in charity work, they usually opt for non-controversial initiatives that can win the support of all fans. FC Bayern Munich’s move is a rare example of a global franchise wading into a politically and emotionally charged discussion.

These symbolic and practical moves come at a time when people desperate for stability and safety continue to take risky, often deadly routes to reach European countries, undeterred by recent migrant deaths.

Meanwhile, Germany is struggling to come to terms with just how many more refugees it can accept, and Chancellor Angela Merkel is working to implement a refugee sharing system that would lighten the burden for Germany.

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Most Health Savings Account Owners Stick With Conservative Options

How people allocate the money in their health savings accounts affects the likely growth rate of the balance.

How people allocate the money in their health savings accounts affects the likely growth rate of the balance. Leigh Wells/Ikon Images/Corbis hide caption

itoggle caption Leigh Wells/Ikon Images/Corbis

Only a tiny fraction of the growing number of people with health savings accounts invests the money in their accounts in the financial markets, a recent study finds. The vast majority leave their contributions in savings accounts instead where the money may earn lower returns.

People who have had their health savings accounts open longer are more likely to invest their contributions, suggesting that there’s a learning curve in grasping how the accounts work and how to use them, says Paul Fronstin, director of the Health Research and Education Program at the Employee Benefit Research Institute and the study’s author.

Forty-seven percent of HSAs with investments were opened between 2005 and 2008. In 2014, just 5 percent of HSAs that were opened had investments.

Since they were introduced in 2004, health savings accounts have offered people with high-deductible health plans that meet certain criteria a way to set aside money tax-free to cover medical expenses. HSA contributions are deposited pretax, grow tax-free and aren’t taxed when distributed if they’re used for qualified medical expenses.

Because of the tax advantages, saving for health care expense in retirement using an HSA may be a better option than using a 401(k) or other retirement savings account for that purpose, say advocates. If an HSA is offered through an employer, both the employer and employee can contribute to the accounts, and the money belongs to the individual if he leaves his job.

This year, plans that link to HSAs must have a deductible of at least $1,300 for single coverage and $2,600 for family coverage, among other requirements.

About two-thirds of health savings accounts offer individuals the ability to use an investment option, says Eric Remjeske, president of Devenir, an investment adviser for health savings accounts.

Yet few consumers are taking advantage of the investment options.

The EBRI study found that 6.4 percent of people with HSAs invested their health savings account contributions in mutual funds or other financial vehicles. The remainder left the contributions in savings accounts, where their money isn’t at risk from market fluctuations. The study examined 2014 data from 2.9 million health savings accounts with $5 billion in assets, covering about 20 percent of the HSA market.

The study didn’t explore why consumers made their HSA choices. However, Fronstin says that in addition to being unfamiliar with how health savings accounts can be used, there may be other roadblocks that discourage people from investing their HSA contributions.

A minimum savings account balance may be required before people can move funds into an investment account, and fees may be charged on the investment account.

And even though people can liquidate their investments at any time generally without penalty, “people may not want to tie up their HSA money in an investment account when they may need it to cover a medical expense,” says Fronstin.

Fronstin is planning to do research to determine how many people use their health savings accounts primarily as an investment or retirement savings vehicle rather than for current medical expenses.

People with investment accounts didn’t refrain from using their HSA for medical expenses, however. Average annual distributions for medical claims were $1,777 for HSAs with investments and $1,293 for those without.

You can contact Kaiser Health News to send comments or ideas for future coverage concerning health insurance.

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